Attribution: JFK Assassination: Front Page Fort Worth Star-Telegram by MyEyeSees under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
over time
This poll, created in 2017 by FiveThirtyEight, utilizes data from an online FiveThirtyEight survey conducted in October 2017 (right before the JFK Act's document release deadline) and the Roper Center.
Attribution: Belief in JFK conspiracies has dropped in recent years. October 23, 2017. Retrieved from FiveThirtyEight. Physical rights retained and permission granted by Harry Enten. Used under fair use. NBC News's video "Was There A Conspiracy To Kill President Kennedy? Most Americans Believe So" was published on October 27, 2017 -- the day after the deadline for the JFK Act.
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Overall, without much new evidence coming out to support these theories, and as the JFK assassination recedes further into history, people do not as adamantly believe in a conspiracy. Belief in a conspiracy grew in the years following the Warren Commission's report, and it peaked in 1983. But, after 1983 (which corresponded with a spike in public trust in the US government during Reagan's presidency), the overall trend is for more and more people to believe that it was actually just Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone, like in the official story provided by government investigations. Some of this can be attributed to the sheer lack of proof for various conspiracies that has continued to not-exist; some can be attributed to the recent computerized model proving Oswald to be the only shooter.
However, it is of note that today, the majority of Americans still believe in some sort of conspiracy. A 2013 Washington Post poll (shown below), cites 62% of Americans as believers, while a 2017 FiveThirtyEight survey (shown on the left) cited 61%. This graph, created by the Washington Post in 2013 around the 50-year anniversary of Kennedy's death, utilizes data collected by themselves, ABC News, Time/CNN, and Harris.
Attribution: Poll over time if the Kennedy assassination was the work of one man or a broader plot. November 20, 2013. Retrieved from The Washington Post. Physical rights retained and permission granted by Peyton M. Craighill. Used under fair use. |
the demographics
In all but one demographic that was delineated in the 2017 FiveThirtyEight poll (sex, race, education level, voter status, age, political party affiliation, and 2016 election support), a majority -- and in some cases, a supermajority -- believe that others were involved in JFK's assassination. Male/female respondents, Clinton/Trump-voting respondents, and Republican/Democrat respondents have similar responses with negligible differences in polling results.
However, there are significant differences in other demographics. Many of these differences can largely be explained by distrust in the government: distrust leading to suspicion that the government's official story is trying to cover something up. This is also from FiveThirtyEight's 2017 online survey.
Attribution: Most people believe JFK wasn't killed by Oswald alone. October 23, 2017. Retrieved from FiveThirtyEight. Physical rights retained and permission granted by Harry Enten. Used under fair use. |
Pew Research Center's "levels of trust" encompasses both interpersonal trust in fellow Americans and trust in institutions, such as the government.
Attribution: Personal trust based on demographic. July 22, 2019. Retrieved from Pew Research Center. Physical rights retained and permission granted by Lee Rainie & Andrew Perrin. |
raceIn comparison to white Americans (56%), Hispanic Americans (72%) and black Americans (76%) are much more likely to believe that it wasn't just one man that killed JFK. The United States government, both at local and national levels, has had a long history of lying to the American communities of people of color, refusing to protect them, targeting them, profiling them, etc. So, this can naturally lead to disbelief in the government's words, especially because Kennedy was a bigger supporter of the Civil Rights Movement in comparison to his contemporaries.
educationPeople with less formal education are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories in general. This can be for a variety of complex reasons. For one, similarly to people of color, less educated people are less likely to trust the government and other large institutions. Again, this contributes to belief in insider involvement or some sort of government lying.
Another reason can be that post-secondary education often has a focus on problem solving and analytical thinking. So, if someone doesn't get that experience in higher education, then they can be more likely to focus on a single piece of suspicious "evidence" (for example, Umbrella Man's ominous presence or the generally shady dealings of the Mafia) but not analyze the greater evidence against it. You can see the intersection of race and education at play here; white college graduates are the only demographic categorized in this poll where a majority doesn't believe in a conspiracy. |
political affiliation
Though people who support the Republican party and the Democratic Party have equal levels of belief in a JFK assassination conspiracy, independents (people who don't strongly support either party) are more likely to think that there's more to it than just Oswald/a lone shooter. This makes sense, since people who don't support the institution of the two-party political system are also less likely going to believe the institution of the federal government: AKA that the government's official story has been entirely truthful.
Going along with that, people who aren't registered to vote are more likely to believe that participating in elections aren't an important formal, institutional civic duty -- or that government elections are a straight up bad thing. In addition, people of color have been, and continue to be, the targets of voter suppression more so than white Americans. So, both of these factors can contribute to non-registered Americans, once again, distrusting the government and consequently believing in a conspiracy.
Going along with that, people who aren't registered to vote are more likely to believe that participating in elections aren't an important formal, institutional civic duty -- or that government elections are a straight up bad thing. In addition, people of color have been, and continue to be, the targets of voter suppression more so than white Americans. So, both of these factors can contribute to non-registered Americans, once again, distrusting the government and consequently believing in a conspiracy.
moving forward
Though polls have shown a downward trend of faith in the various Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories, there has also been a downward trend of public faith in the government. In addition, a majority of Americans today still believe in a conspiracy. Thus, it seems that the government's official lone shooter explanation will most probably continue to grow in popularity, but it's unsure if that'll ever be the most popular theory.
With something that happened over a half-century ago and, in general, little new evidence that can help explain anything, it's more than likely that America will never be certain of the full truth behind President John F. Kennedy's death. |
"Perhaps if the government releases the final documents on the assassination, that will put conspiracy theories about the murder to rest. But chances are it won’t." |
bibliography
Civil rights movement. (n.d.). John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum. Retrieved April 24, 2020, from https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/civil-rights-movement
Craighill, P. M. (2013, November 20). Poll: 62 percent believe broader plot killed Kennedy. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2013/11/20/poll-62-percent-believe-broader-plot-killed-kennedy/
Enten, H. (2017, October 23). Most people believe in JFK conspiracy theories. FiveThirtyEight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/
Jarrett, C. (2017, April 5). Why more highly educated people are less into conspiracy theories. The British Psychological Society Research Digest. https://digest.bps.org.uk/2017/04/05/why-more-highly-educated-people-are-less-into-conspiracy-theories/
Rainie, L. & Perrin A. (2019, July 22). Key findings about Americans’ declining trust in government and each other. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/
Craighill, P. M. (2013, November 20). Poll: 62 percent believe broader plot killed Kennedy. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2013/11/20/poll-62-percent-believe-broader-plot-killed-kennedy/
Enten, H. (2017, October 23). Most people believe in JFK conspiracy theories. FiveThirtyEight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/
Jarrett, C. (2017, April 5). Why more highly educated people are less into conspiracy theories. The British Psychological Society Research Digest. https://digest.bps.org.uk/2017/04/05/why-more-highly-educated-people-are-less-into-conspiracy-theories/
Rainie, L. & Perrin A. (2019, July 22). Key findings about Americans’ declining trust in government and each other. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/